Paul Dibb, the former Australia deputy secretary of defense, pointed out that Australia should recognize the importance of Taiwan issues to its own defense, and if China launches an attack on Taiwan and successfully defeats United States, it will be Australia’s primary strategic threat as an independent country.
Debb wrote an article at the Australian Strategic Policy Institute (ASPI), an Australian think tank, the title is “As important as Ukraine is, a Taiwan war must be Australia’s biggest worry”.
Dibu pointed out that in addition to the situation in the Middle East, the world faces two large-scale wars that could escalate in Europe and East Asia, involving Ukraine and Taiwan. Australia should be concerned about these two wars, but the risk that Taiwan could fall into Chinese hands will be a core issue for Australia’s national security.
Dibu noted that Ukraine and Taiwan each face military threats from neighboring nuclear powers. There is a clear difference between Ukraine and Taiwan, Ukraine is an internationally recognized independent state, but it has suffered from long-term instability and violence due to the rise of oligarchs and corruption; Taiwan is not officially recognized internationally, but it has a more mature democratic system and continues peaceful regime change.
Dibu pointed out that the war between Taiwan and Ukraine has a very different strategic impact on Australia. Although Ukraine faces a military threat from Russia, the region is not Australia’s main strategic focus, Australia may be called upon to contribute due to international legal and moral pressure, and Australia’s military contribution to a high-intensity ground war is limited if the Russian-Ukrainian war escalates into a full-scale military confrontation between Russia and NATO.
In contrast, the conflict in the Taiwan Strait poses a more direct strategic threat to Australia, Dibu said. He warned that if China attacks Taiwan while Russia expands its war and successfully defeats United States, it will be Australia’s primary strategic threat as an independent country.
He pointed out that if China pushes back the United States, no one will be able to stop China from expanding southward and even building military bases near Australia. Australia will be strategically isolated, and Southeast Asia and the South Pacific will fall into China’s sphere of influence.
Without the United States alliance, Australia will no longer have credible military capabilities and will have to retreat to a neutral posture.
A United States rout would also have serious consequences for Japan and Korea, which fear relinquishing sea and air control of the East and South China Seas to China, Dibu stressed. If a new China-centric geopolitics prevails in East Asia, it could force these countries to develop nuclear weapons to defend themselves.
He also said that for Australia, the worst-case scenario would be Russia’s military successes in the European theater against NATO members such as the Baltic states and Poland, combined with China’s dominance of East Asia after defeating United States, and eventually triggering a full-scale nuclear war.
Dibu warned that Australia must recognize the importance of the Taiwan issue to its own defense and not ignore the threat from China. He believes that Australia should quickly acquire long-range anti-ship missiles with a range of more than 2,000 kilometers, rather than just waiting for AUKUS submarines, in order to have enough potential to defend itself.
Finally, Dibu noted that, unlike Ukraine, Taiwan may become directly important in our defense program priorities. Nonetheless, we do have a strong national interest in seeing Ukraine liberated from Russia’s illegal invasion, and we should do everything we can to achieve that.
前澳洲國防部副部長保羅·狄布（Paul Dibb）強調，澳洲必須認識到台灣問題對其國防的重要性。他指出，如果中國對台灣發動攻擊並成功擊敗美國，這將成為澳洲作為獨立國家的最大戰略威脅。
狄布在澳洲智庫「澳洲戰略政策研究所」（ASPI）發表的文章中，題為「儘管烏克蘭至關重要，台海戰爭才應是澳洲最大的擔憂」，他提到，除了中東局勢外，全球還面臨兩場可能在歐洲和東亞升級的大規模戰爭，分別涉及烏克蘭和台灣。雖然這兩場衝突都值得關注，但台灣落入中國控制的風險將是澳洲國家安全的核心問題。
狄布指出，烏克蘭和台灣都面臨來自鄰近核大國的軍事威脅，但兩者之間存在顯著差異。烏克蘭是國際公認的獨立國家，卻因寡頭政治和腐敗問題而長期不穩定；而台灣雖未獲得國際正式承認，但擁有成熟的民主制度，並持續進行和平的政權更迭。
他強調，台海衝突對澳洲的戰略威脅更為直接。狄布警告，如果中國在俄羅斯擴大戰爭之際攻擊台灣並成功擊敗美國，這將成為澳洲最大的戰略挑戰。他指出，若中國能夠擊退美國，將無人能阻止其向南擴張，甚至在澳洲附近建立軍事基地，這將使澳洲面臨戰略孤立，東南亞和南太平洋將落入中國的勢力範圍。
他還提到，若失去美國的聯盟，澳洲將不再具備可信的軍事能力，只能選擇中立。此外，狄布強調，美國的失敗將對日本和韓國造成嚴重影響，這兩國可能會向中國讓步，失去對東海和南海的控制權。若以中國為中心的新地緣政治在東亞盛行，這可能迫使這些國家發展核武器以自我防衛。
狄布最後指出，對澳洲而言，最糟糕的情況是俄羅斯在歐洲戰場上對北約成員國取得成功，與中國在擊敗美國後主導東亞的情況結合，最終可能引發全面的核戰爭。他強調，澳洲必須清楚認識到台灣問題對自身防衛的重要性，並且不能輕視來自中國的威脅。他建議澳洲應迅速獲取射程超過2000公里的遠程反艦飛彈，而不僅僅是等待AUKUS的進展。
