The United States military officials and analysts have warned for years that China may launch an armed attack or blockade of Taiwan, but a report released on 4th,Oct warned of non-military strategies that may be effective against Taiwan.
The Foundation for Defense of Democracies (FDD), a Washington-based research firm, said in a report that Beijing could wage economic and cyber warfare to force Taiwan to surrender without directly using military force. The report, which could have happened but was ignored, posed a challenge to Taiwan’s biggest ally, United States, and recommended that Washington prepare for how best to respond.
Researchers at the FDD worked with banking and finance experts in Taiwan for two days earlier this year to simulate possible nonmilitary measures by Beijing, such as disinformation campaigns and cyberattacks on infrastructure. The FDD said it was the first exercise of its kind and was designed to fill an analytical gap.
Modern globalization has created more economic linkages that China can use to achieve coercive goals, and technological innovation has created more digital linkages that offer more possibilities for coercion, including by targeting critical infrastructure, the report said.
Beijing has vowed to seize Taiwan and use force if necessary, although Chinese President Xi Jinping has pledged to do his “best efforts” to achieve this goal peacefully.
Tensions in the Taiwan Strait have risen since Beijing began increasing diplomatic and military pressure on Taiwan in 2016, prompting United States to step up its support. Washington said it was in United States’ interest to maintain peace across the strait and stand with democracies like Taiwan to maintain a rules-based world order. Under United States law, Washington is obligated to provide Taiwan with sufficient military hardware for defense.
Beijing has been asking United States not to meddle in Taiwan’s affairs, arguing that it is purely an internal affair.
United States President Joe Biden has said he would send troops to defend Taiwan if China launches an armed attack, but the United States government has not yet developed a plan for a non-military strategy that would give Beijing the flexibility to weaken Taiwan without triggering a direct Washington response like a military invasion, researchers at the Defense of Democracies said.
Taiwan’s foreign and defense ministries did not immediately comment on the report.
An estimated 1 million Taiwan live and work in China, with growing economic ties. This makes the possibility of economic coercion, boycott and military blockade even greater of a threat.
In the simulation, experts from United States and Taiwan examined possible measures Beijing could take, such as conducting psychological warfare to erode public trust, banning Taiwan imports or raising tariffs, shorting Taiwan stocks, freezing bank transfers across the Taiwan Strait, cutting fiber-optic cables, and targeting energy imports and storage.
Recommendations include diversifying Taiwan’s energy imports, relocating companies from China, developing new markets, and building alliances and partnerships. The report recommends that the United States develop a set of options for dealing with China and improve coordination with allies.
TheTaiwan Academy of Banking and Finance, which conducted the simulation in partnership with the FDD, believes that Taiwan must strengthen its financial resilience.
“China can undermine Taiwan’s financial stability and incite social unrest as a precursor to an invasion,” the report said.
Russell Hsiao, executive director of the Washington-based Global Taiwan Taiwan Institute (GTI), said Beijing had stepped up its nonmilitary measures against Taiwan, and such efforts were expected to continue in the coming months and years.
“United States and Taiwan need to work with allies and like-minded partners to strengthen our collective resilience against China’s weaponization of economic interdependence,” Hsiao said.
美聯社今天（5日）報導，美國軍方官員和分析師多年来一直警告，中國可能會對台灣發動武裝攻擊或實施封鎖。然而，4日公布的一份報告則對可能有效針對台灣的非軍事策略發出了警示。
這份由位於華盛頓的「捍衛民主基金會」（Foundation for Defense of Democracies, FDD）所撰寫的報告指出，北京可能會透過經濟和網絡戰爭，迫使台灣在不直接使用軍事力量的情況下投降。報告強調，這一被忽視的情況對台灣的主要盟友美國構成了挑戰，並建議華盛頓應為最佳應對方案做好準備。
「捍衛民主基金會」的研究人員在今年早些時候，與台灣的銀行和金融專家合作，進行了為期兩天的模擬演習，探討北京可能採取的非軍事措施，如假消息活動和對基礎設施的網絡攻擊。該基金會表示，這是首次舉行此類演習，旨在填補相關分析的空白。
報告指出，「現代全球化促進了更多的經濟聯繫，中國可以利用這些聯繫來實現其脅迫性目標」，同時「科技創新也增強了數位聯繫，提供了更多的脅迫手段，包括針對關鍵基礎設施的攻擊」。
北京誓言要奪取台灣，必要時將動用武力，儘管中國國家主席習近平承諾會盡「最大努力」以和平方式達成這一目標。
自2016年以來，北京對台灣的外交和軍事壓力不斷加大，導致台灣海峽的緊張局勢加劇，促使美國加強對台支持。美方表示，維護海峽和平並與台灣等民主國家攜手維護基於規則的國際秩序符合美國的利益。根據美國法律，華盛頓有責任向台灣提供足夠的軍事裝備以進行防禦。
北京一再要求美國不要干涉台灣事務，聲稱這是中國的內政問題。
「捍衛民主基金會」的研究人員指出，美國總統拜登曾表示，如果中國對台灣發動武裝攻擊，他將派兵保衛台灣，但美國政府尚未制定針對非軍事策略的應對計劃，這使得北京能夠靈活地削弱台灣，而不會像軍事入侵那樣引發華府的直接反應。
台灣的外交部和國防部尚未對該報告發表評論。
據估計，約有100萬台灣人在中國生活和工作，雙方的經濟聯繫日益緊密，這使得經濟脅迫、抵制和軍事封鎖的風險變得更加嚴峻。
在此次模擬演習中，來自美國和台灣的專家探討了北京可能採取的行動，包括進行心理戰以削弱公眾信任、禁止台灣產品進口或提高關稅、賣空台灣股票、凍結兩岸銀行轉帳業務、切斷光纖電纜，以及針對能源進口和儲存的措施。
建議包括台灣實現能源進口多元化、將企業從中國撤出、開發新市場，並建立聯盟和夥伴關係。報告還建議美國制定一系列應對中國的方案選項，並加強與盟國的協調。
與「捍衛民主基金會」合作進行此次模擬演習的台灣金融研訓院認為，台灣必須增強其金融韌性。
報告指出：「中國有能力破壞台灣的金融穩定，並煽動社會動盪，作為入侵的前奏。」
總部位於華盛頓的全球台灣研究中心執行長蕭良其表示，北京已經加強了對台灣的非軍事措施，這類努力預計在未來幾個月和幾年中將持續增強。
蕭良其強調：「美國和台灣需要與盟國及志同道合的夥伴合作，增強我們對抗中國將經濟相互依賴武器化的集體韌性。」
