The greatest danger of China’s manoeuvres around Taiwan isn’t invasion – it’s the creeping apathy they’re cultivating in all of us. China’s relentless military exercises around Taiwan are the perfect example of what we might call the ‘politics of numbing.’ These drills, like the recent ‘Strait Thunder-2025A,’ are a little part sabre-rattling as part of a calculated strategy to normalise aggression and lull the world into complacency. By turning military provocations into routine events, Beijing is desensitising Taiwan, its allies, and global observers to the threat of invasion. It’s a psychological game: the more frequent these incursions, the less shocking they become.
It’s not about causing Taiwan to scramble jets or issue condemnations. IN this, President Lai is a “steady-as-she-goes” player of this game; the optimal counterweight to Chinese wargames. Not getting alarmed, or alarmist. China’s game for the moment is quite a lot – but not only – about eroding vigilance. When every week brings another PLA warship or aircraft crossing the median line, people stop paying attention. They start thinking, ‘It’s just another drill.’ But this is deliberate. China is conditioning all of us, but especially the Taiwanese, to ignore its growing military presence until one day, it’s too late to react.
Or – as much as I hate to carry these academic hedges – is this all unintended? Is it simply a by-product of Beijing’s obsession with control and intimidation?
Actually, deliberate strategy or unintended consequence, the result is the same: a dangerous erosion of readiness and resolve. Taiwan cannot afford to grow numb, nor can its allies. The stakes are existential. Complacency is a poor condition when dealing with a regime that views patience as a weapon. The question isn’t if China will invade, although I see so many pundits waving that prediction in, it’s whether we’ll notice in time when it does.
By: Brian Iselin, Associate Editor
Image credit: BBC
