Richard Saunders-Taichung
Analysts warn that China could exploit the United States’ surprise attack on Venezuela to strengthen its territorial claims over Taiwan and the South China Sea, but they stress that Beijing is unlikely to accelerate any plans for a direct invasion of Taiwan.
A report released Monday by the German Marshall Fund cautioned that any conflict with Taiwan would leave China facing “massive economic disruption, catastrophic military losses, significant social unrest, and devastating sanctions.” The study estimated that the People’s Liberation Army could lose more than half of its active-duty ground forces in a major war scenario, underscoring the enormous risks for Beijing.
At the same time, President Donald Trump’s capture of Venezuelan leader Nicolás Maduro over the weekend has handed China an unexpected opportunity to amplify criticism of Washington. Beijing swiftly condemned the strike as a violation of international law, with state-run Xinhua calling it “naked hegemonic behaviour” and accusing the U.S. of pursuing a “predatory order based on U.S. interests.”
Analysts: “Cheap Ammunition” for Beijing
Experts say the Venezuela episode provides China with “cheap ammunition” to push back against Washington’s long-standing accusations that Beijing violates international law in its territorial claims. “It’s really creating a lot of openings for the Chinese to push back against the U.S. in the future,” said William Yang of the International Crisis Group.
China claims Taiwan as its own province and asserts sovereignty over nearly all of the South China Sea, putting it at odds with several Southeast Asian nations. Last week, Beijing staged its most extensive war games around Taiwan to date, demonstrating its ability to encircle the island.
Taiwan Pushback
Despite the heightened tensions, analysts argue that Xi Jinping’s considerations about Taiwan remain driven primarily by domestic factors rather than U.S. actions in Latin America. “Taking over Taiwan depends on China’s developing but still insufficient capability rather than what Trump did in a distant continent,” said Shi Yinhong, professor of international relations at Renmin University.
Neil Thomas of the Asia Society added that Beijing views Taiwan as an internal matter and is unlikely to cite Venezuela as precedent for cross-strait military action. “Xi will want a clear contrast with Washington to trumpet China’s claims to stand for peace, development and moral leadership,” he said.
Taiwanese officials also dismissed the idea that China might follow the U.S. example. “China has never lacked hostility toward Taiwan, but it genuinely lacks the feasible means,” said Wang Ting-yu, a senior lawmaker from Taiwan’s ruling party. “China is not the United States, and Taiwan is certainly not Venezuela.”
Risks for Taiwan
Still, observers caution that the situation amplifies risks for Taipei, which may seek closer alignment with Washington in response. On Chinese social media, discussions of the U.S. strike trended heavily, with some users suggesting Beijing should learn from Trump’s actions.
Lev Nachman, a political science professor at National Taiwan University, noted that while Taiwan has yet to issue a statement, Trump’s move could help Xi Jinping frame a narrative that justifies stronger action against Taiwan in the future.
