Brian Iselin, Associate Editor- Brussels
A Bold Strategy for Deterrence
As tensions in the Taiwan Strait continue to simmer, it’s clear that Taipei needs to rethink its defensive posture. Having spent years studying Asian security dynamics, I believe Taiwan has a unique opportunity to create a formidable deterrent against potential aggression. The key? A robust missile defence system centred around the Swedish RBS15 Gungnir.
Why? Because with all of the PLA Navy incursions in Taiwan’s waters, Taiwan needs a 200km standoff zone with a near-perfect “one missile, one ship” success rate. It’s an ambitious goal, but one that’s achievable with the right approach and investment.
The Gungnir System: A Game-Changer
More robot than missile, the RBS15 Gungnir isn’t just another anti-ship missile. With a range exceeding 200km and advanced target-seeking capabilities, it’s a force multiplier that could reshape the strategic balance in the Taiwan Strait. Its versatility is impressive — it can be launched from land, sea, and air platforms, giving Taiwan’s military unprecedented flexibility. As both the Swedish and Polish Navies have created a Baltic missile blanket with the Gungnir, so too can Taiwan.
What really sets the Gungnir apart is its ability to engage multiple threats simultaneously. In the crowded waters of the Taiwan Strait, this could be the difference between deterrence and disaster. To be sure, China cannot invade without a massive naval deployment. Maximising the prickliness of that voyage for any flotilla is crucial. And Taiwan presently does not have that capability.
The Plan: Layered Defence and Strategic Deployment
To create an effective 200km standoff zone, Taiwan needs a multi-layered approach:
1. Coastal Defence: Fixed and mobile launchers along Taiwan’s coastline, providing a first line of defence. Sweden now has added truck-mounted launchers for rapid and evasive deployment.
2. Naval Integration: Equipping Taiwan’s naval vessels with Gungnir missiles, extending the defensive perimeter into the strait.
3. Air Force Capability: Integrating air-launched Gungnir missiles with Taiwan’s fighter aircraft for rapid response.
This three-pronged strategy ensures coverage from multiple angles, making it extremely difficult for any potential aggressor to penetrate Taiwan’s defences.
The Price Tag: A Worthwhile Investment
Now, let’s talk numbers. Based on my calculations and industry insights, implementing this plan would cost Taiwan approximately $362 million. It’s a significant sum, but let’s put it in perspective.
Taiwan’s proposed defence budget for 2025 is around $19.7 billion. The Gungnir plan represents less than 2% of this budget. It’s a drop in the bucket compared to the strategic advantage it provides.
Some U.S. officials have suggested Taiwan should be spending closer to 10% of its GDP on defence. While that’s a stretch, because also has humans to govern and provide for, it underscores the urgency of bolstering Taiwan’s defensive capabilities. The new unreliability of the US as an ally should be now lighting a fire under Taiwan’s defence planners.
The Broader Implications
Implementing this missile shield isn’t just about military strategy — it’s a statement of intent. It sends a clear message to potential aggressors that Taiwan is serious about its defence and willing to invest in cutting-edge technology to maintain its autonomy. It also tells allies “we want your help, but by god we are ready regardless”.
Moreover, this approach aligns with the concept of “asymmetric warfare.” Taiwan doesn’t need to match its potential adversaries ship for ship or plane for plane. And indeed, it simply cannot. By creating a formidable anti-access/area denial (A2/AD) capability, it can effectively deter aggression — holding all capital ships at bay — without breaking the bank.
Challenges and Considerations
Of course, no plan is without its challenges. Taiwan will need to negotiate technology transfer and local production rights with Saab, the manufacturer of the Gungnir system. This could involve establishing a joint venture for local assembly and maintenance, further boosting Taiwan’s domestic defence industry.
EU-Taiwan relations must skip to the next level to make this happen. But it can be done by deepening relations. The forthcoming inaugural EU-Taiwan has precisely this role. There has arguably never been a moment when European countries are this sensitive to the needs of Taiwan to defend itself, because precisely the same attitude is now overtaking Europe,
There’s also the question of potential diplomatic fallout. Some might view this as an escalatory move, but I’d argue it’s a purely defensive measure. Taiwan isn’t expanding its offensive capabilities; it’s simply ensuring its ability to protect its sovereignty. To suggest a porcupine has quills for attacking anything is plain stupid.
The Road Ahead
Implementing this plan won’t happen overnight. And arguably the single greatest hurdle is getting Sweden to release them for sale to Taiwan. That’s a negotiation of significant proportions, but I would opine this is the right moment to ask; sentiment in Sweden and the EU more broadly is strongly swinging behind Taiwan. Taiwan has momentum.
And then we’re looking at a timeline of 2–3 years for initial operational capability, with full deployment and integration within 5 years. But given the current geopolitical climate, there’s no time to waste. If this is not started tomorrow, something is terribly wrong.
Taiwan’s lawmakers need to set aside partisan differences and recognise the urgency of the situation. The recent debates over defence spending cuts are concerning — this is no time for political games when national security is at stake.
The very implementable Gungnir missile shield plan offers Taiwan a cost-effective way to significantly enhance its defensive posture. It’s a bold move, but one that’s necessary given the evolving security landscape in the region.
As someone who’s spent years studying these issues, I can’t stress enough how critical it is for Taiwan to act now. The window of opportunity won’t stay open forever. By investing in this missile shield, and investing in taking EU-Taiwan relations to the next level, Taiwan can ensure its security, deter potential aggressors, and maintain the delicate balance in one of the world’s most strategically important regions.
The choice is clear. The time to act is now. Taiwan’s future may well depend on it.
- 台湾防御策略的调整：
- 台湾需要重新评估其防御姿态，以应对台海紧张局势。
- 关键建议是建设以瑞典RBS15 Gungnir导弹为核心的强大导弹防御系统。
- RBS15 Gungnir系统的优势：
- 该系统射程超过200公里，具备先进的目标搜索能力。
- 可从陆地、海上和空中平台发射，提供灵活性。
- 能同时应对多个威胁，适用于台湾海峡密集的海域环境。
- 旨在为台湾建立200公里的拦截区，实现“单导弹击毁一舰”的成功率。
- 三层防御战略：
- 沿海防御：固定及移动发射装置覆盖台湾海岸线。
- 海军整合：将导弹装备到海军舰艇上，延伸防御范围。
- 空军支援：与战斗机整合，实现快速反应。
- 经济可行性：
- 计划成本约为3.62亿美元，占2025年国防预算的不到2%。
- 对台湾的防御能力而言，这是一项高性价比的投资。
- 政治及外交考量：
- 需与瑞典进行技术转移和本地生产权谈判。
- 或引发外交反响，但该计划属防御性质，不应被视为挑衅。
- 当前时机有利于争取欧盟及瑞典的支持，深化台欧关系。
- 行动建议：
- 时间紧迫，建议立即启动该计划，目标在2-3年内实现初步运行能力，5年内全面部署。
- 台湾需要跨党派合作，为国家安全优先考虑。
此计划被视为一种经济实惠且战略有效的防御选择，可提升台湾的自主防御能力，同时传递明确的意志声明
