Francis Tuschek, Ulaan Bator
German Chancellor Friedrich Merz has warned that military strikes on Iran will not lead to regime change, marking a rare split between Berlin and Washington over strategy in the Middle East. His remarks underscore the European Union’s broader hesitation to back U.S.-led wars — a stance that Taiwanese analysts say could reshape transatlantic and Indo-Pacific security dynamics.
Merz, who initially expressed solidarity with Washington after the U.S. and Israel launched unprovoked attacks on Iran late last month, has since criticized what he called an “unplanned and aimless” military campaign. Speaking at a press conference on Monday, he said that while Iran’s current leadership “must be replaced by a democratically legitimate government,” this cannot be achieved through bombing.
“Bombing it into existence will in all likelihood fail,” Merz said, calling instead for diplomatic and strategic means of encouraging political change in Tehran.
Germany has also made clear it will not take part in any naval mission to secure the Strait of Hormuz, where fighting has disrupted shipping and pushed global oil prices above $100 a barrel. Merz said Berlin lacks a legal mandate from the UN, EU, or NATO to join such operations and insisted, “This war is not a NATO matter.”
The statement comes in response to U.S. President Donald Trump’s call for countries that rely on Hormuz oil — including European NATO members — to send warships to protect shipping routes. Trump warned that allies risk a “very bad future” if they refuse.
Across Europe, the response has been skeptical. The EU on Monday declined to expand its Red Sea naval mission, established in 2024 to protect ships from Yemen’s Houthi attacks, to cover Hormuz. EU foreign policy chief Kaja Kallas said there was “no appetite” to change the mission’s mandate at this time. France, Japan, Australia, and Greece also rejected Washington’s request, while the UK said it was still reviewing “narrow, defensive options.”
A Shift That Taipei Is Watching Closely
From a Taiwanese perspective, Europe’s refusal to follow Washington unconditionally into another war may signal a broader shift: one where U.S. allies are increasingly prioritizing regional stability and economic security over automatic alignment with American strategy.
Political observers in Taipei note that such hesitation could have implications for coalition-building in the Indo-Pacific, where coordination among Western democracies is central to deterring authoritarian aggression. If major European powers like Germany are unwilling to engage militarily in conflicts seen as “contrived” or open-ended, that may influence how much support Washington can expect in future crises — including those touching East Asia.
Taiwanese analysts also point out the economic dimension of Germany’s stance. With its energy-intensive industries already strained, Berlin is wary of further volatility in global oil markets and new refugee flows from the Middle East. This pragmatic approach, they argue, may become a model for other U.S. partners facing the trade-offs between strategic loyalty and domestic stability.
For Taipei, the key question is whether this signals a lasting recalibration of Western military priorities — one that places greater emphasis on diplomatic containment and multilateral legitimacy rather than unilateral force projection. If so, Taiwan may find itself navigating a world where even close American allies weigh every intervention more cautiously than before.
